Johnny Furphy Scouting Report
Furphy is one of the draft's best shooters. What else can he offer?
Name: Johnny Furphy
Birth date: December 7, 2004
Height/Weight: 6’9/202
Wingspan/ standing reach: N/A
Hand size: N/A
Position: SF
Pre-Draft team: Kansas
Tools: Shooting, intangibles
Background:
Stats: 9 PPG 5 RPG 1 APG 1 SPG 0.3 BPG 0.8 TOPG 2.1 FPG on 46.6/35/76.5 in 24 MPG
Pros:
Smart off-ball mover; quickly recognizes and capitalizes on unfocused defenders
Quick, effortless shooting motion with great size makes him hard to block
Low turnover forward who has a great feel for the game
Plays hard and doesn’t give up on plays/loose balls easily
Has good awareness on defense
Plays within himself and doesn’t force plays with the ball in his hands
Patient cutter with good timing on when to attack; knows how to be a decoy off-ball mover as well
Cons:
Struggles to separate on drives or be a creator
Defensive upside is likely limited due to footwork/lateral quickness concerns
Lacks the ability to make athletic closeouts off of bumps/contact (TCU game)
Doesn’t get much lift on drives
Seems to have a weak base on pull-up jumpers, and can sway off-balance
Often late to recognize when to shoot off the dribble
Slow as a ball-handler compared to open-floor speed
Swing Skills:
Needs to develop more of a handle to be able to attack closeouts
How well can his negative defense be hidden?
Summary:
Johnny Furphy’s value comes from being a tall off-ball player. With outstanding intelligence, rarely making elementary mistakes, Furphy’s archetype of a tall shooter that limits errors is desirable for NBA teams needing shooting for cheap with long-term control.
While the spot-up shooting ability with Furphy is apparent, it’s not just the effortless stroke that is easy to block. Like every elite shooter, Furphy knows where to be, and when to be there. It is rare to see him sit still on a possession and wait for the ball to come to him. Rather, he moves as the ball moves, making it hard for defenses to stay attached to him while also controlling what is happening on-ball. This allows him to both take advantage of napping defenders on the perimeter for open jumpers, but also allows him best to use his athleticism by cutting into the holes of the defense for easy rim attempts. Almost all of his rim attempts this season came from cuts, where he shot 76%. This multi-level scoring ability as an off-ball threat makes him difficult to defend because his cuts are intelligent and timely, putting defenders in a position to have to play from behind, but defenders also cannot overcommit as he can easily turn back to the perimeter and quickly spot up over a contest.
The areas for improvements offensively for Furphy stem from ball-handling woes. Right now, Furphy’s handle is simple, using straight-line drives as he struggles to blow by defenders. As a freshman, he didn’t showcase many possessions where he attacked closeouts. Attacking closeouts is something every shooter in the NBA has to have in their game, otherwise their shooting value dips significantly. With a weak handle, Furphy’s upside in attacking closeouts is decently low. Another concern in this is that Furphy’s pull-up shooting leaves a lot to be desired with scouts. Going just 4-15 on pull-up jumpers, Johnny struggles to not only get consistent mechanics, but also his timing on when to shoot off the dribble is alarming. While this is likely due to a lack of reps and something experience can fix, a key sign of a good shooter is being able to use a green light as soon as space opens up for an open jumper. Another concern that amplifies this woe is that Furphy is slow as a ball-handler, making him late to openings on the floor, which gives the defense a wide margin for error.
Defensively, Furphy projects as a negative defender with little chance to turn this area of his game around due to physical limitations. While his awareness is sharp, not only being able to read plays before they happen at times, but also knowing where to be even if he is limited in executing what his mind tells him to do. Furphy is easy to blow by on drives, and often easier to go the opposite direction of. For example in the play below Furphy takes a bump, and is physically unable to recover on the stepback to get a strong contest despite his size. Thus, shot creators can easily make Furphy smaller on the defensive end, which is a dangerously negative trait to have as an on-ball defender on the wings. Because of this, Furphy is likely to be targeted on switches, despite the likely attempt of coaches to hide him on the least dangerous offensive players.
Of all weak points to his game, Furphy’s hump he has to climb is learning how to be more than just a shooter with defensive liabilities, which has plagued elite shooters near his size from making the NBA. Some examples of this are Joe Wieskamp, Tyler Hall, Matthew Hurt, and others.
The question NBA teams need to be asking themselves is this: “Do we have enough defensive scheming and personnel to make up for Furphy’s woes?” If the answer is no right now and is unlikely to change in coming years, that team should not draft him. If the answer is yes, or trending to be yes, then the answer should be “let’s take a flier on a top-level shooter with size that has a key trait to get him on the floor in a class full of wild cards.”
The best fits for Furphy all answer yes to the above question, for teams such as: Orlando, New York, Houston, and Philadelphia.
Projected draft range: 13-25
Expected role: Off-ball threat
Unplayable if: Lack of defense may limit him come playoff time.
Exceeds expectations if: His shooting progresses in the NBA, and he adds the ability to attack closeouts to his game. Additionally, if he can find ways to minimize his on-ball defensive woes, that will help him stay on the court in key moments.
Videos:
Intelligent assist of free throw
Shot chart:
