Dillon Mitchell Scouting Report
Can the athletic defender overcome offensive shortcomings?
Name: Dillon Mitchell
Birth date: October 3, 2003
Height/Weight: 6’7 ½/193
Wingspan/ standing reach: 6’10/8’9
Hand size: 9 ½
Position: PF
Pre-Draft team: Texas
Tools: Athleticism, defensive upside, rebounding
Background: Good work ethic and trusted leader in the UT locker room. Didn’t pick up basketball until 7th grade and played football before switching to basketball. Won the Jordan Classic MVP in 2022.
Season stats: 9.6 PPG 7.5 RPG 1.4 APG 1 SPG 0.9 BPG 1.4 TOPG on 58.5/0/60
Pros:
Great athlete
Good, not great, frame considering his role
Excellent character; mature and self-aware
Outstanding rebounder; one of the most efficient rebounders among his class
Good cutter that can break free easily thanks to explosiveness
Takes advantage of lazy passes to force easy turnovers
Great in transition and in the open floor where he can best utilize his athleticism; should be able to translate this up to the NBA into quick offense
Cons:
Needs a more consistent jumper
Relies too much on his left hand at the rim
Needs a more defined role; plays dunker spot at 6’8; somewhat of a tweener
Needs to add weight/strength
Doesn’t have much of a handle; extremely straight line player
Not a good decision-maker with the ball in his hands
Swing Skills:
Needs to have better court vision. Has missed obvious next passes out of the flash often (UCF game for example, as well as Houston on his second shot)
How can he overcome his lack of shooting to impact the game in the half-court?
Growing shooter, particularly off the dribble; is this a real trait?
Summary:
Dillon Mitchell is one of the most athletic forwards in the country, with a high defensive ceiling. However, his offense is almost exclusively cuts and rim attempts, although he is trying to integrate jump shooting into his arsenal more.
Defensively, there is a lot to like with Dillon Mitchell. He forces turnovers and turns those turnovers into exciting transition scores, he can defend 1-4, and he closes out possessions by using his motor to crash the glass. For perspective, among high major players below 6’10, Mitchell was one of three freshmen/sophomore players with a defensive rebounding percentage above 20% this season. This is a testament to Mitchell’s motor and ability to beat others to the 50/50 plays. Mitchell uses his athleticism to win against players of all sizes and positions, timing shots off the rim and simply out-jumping his opponents. His natural defensive instincts are strong and help him create turnovers, and that is when he can best use his athleticism offensively in transition by turning defense into free points.
As he gets stronger, not only will his rebounding get better to be able to hold off opponents, but also his ability to lock ball-handlers up of all sizes will improve. Currently, Mitchell is still skinny and will benefit from an NBA strength & conditioning program. While he is by no means weak, adding another element to his body by getting stronger will make him that much better defensively. With how many holes his offense has, he needs every trait to be as close to maximized to stand a chance at earning minutes in the NBA. Mitchell’s ability to make everyone around him better on the defensive end is a trait something every team needs from their defensive-minded forwards. Mitchell’s footwork on drives and quick rotations both on and off-ball are valuable traits, and amplify the team’s defensive functionality.
Offensively, Mitchell is purely a play finisher at the rim that uses his athleticism off of cuts, transition finishes, and screen & rolls. While he shot well at the rim as a sophomore (68.9% in half court, 77.6% overall at rim), Mitchell’s finishing is predictable. He heavily favors his left hand, and wins as the advantage man in transition, finishing 3-on-1 fastbreaks and the likes. While there is nothing inherently wrong with this, the issue arises from asking what else he can do as a finisher. He can be creative at the rim with acrobatic reverse layups, but again he almost always will end up going up with his left hand. However, one saving grace in this area for Mitchell is that NBA spacing will allow for less crowdedness at the paint, which could help him translate his rim efficiency to the next level. With a proper P&R guard that can consistently find Mitchell as the likely 5 in the dunker spot and as a roller, Mitchell’s athleticism could pop even more in the NBA.
Away from the rim, Mitchell is incredibly limited offensively. While he has become more willing to shoot jumpers, his jump shot is not a viable weapon, going 7-38 on the year on all jumpers (31 from 2, 7 from 3). On top of that, his decision-making in general is poor, often being overwhelmed by routine actions, which limits his ability on-ball. Take the play below as an example, which was not entirely uncommon.
https://twitter.com/MavsDraft/status/1753824533763494035
On top of limited trust assigned to him from a coaching staff, he is unable to create for himself with simple, straight-line handles that do not break down defenses, which makes him a non-creator. On top of this, he is easily strippable with poor ball security as he picks the ball up on drives. With minimal shooting upside, no realistic path to playmaking ability, and questionable decision making with the ball in his hands, coaches will have a hard time trusting Mitchell with meaningful minutes in meaningful games. Regardless of his defensive prowess and ability to defend almost every position, a 6’8 center that can only live in one area of the court is difficult to utilize. Additionally, Mitchell will have to add a consistent right hand at the rim and make smarter reads in the paint. All of these combined strengths and weaknesses make it extremely hard to justify finding a way to give Mitchell minutes in the modern NBA. His margin for error in his strengths are slim, and even his best case scenario most nights isn’t a highly impactful role.
I wrote the following blurb in Chicago last year: “At the 2023 NBA Draft Combine, Dillon Mitchell walked away one of the biggest winners of the week. On the first day, he was successful (relative to standards and expectations) in shooting drills, and his defense popped. In the first day of scrimmages, he hit a 3 pointer and connected the defense with an easy-flowing offense. With the NBA tempo, his game benefited from fast-pace offense, making his excellent frame and athleticism pop more than it was able to in college with more freedom.”
Mitchell will need a strong pre-draft process, showing signs of life in his jumper at the Combine like he did last year and standing out in scrimmages. His Combine last year propelled him into his sophomore year, but he did not take the leap expected in a weak class. If he can perform well in Chicago again, he is likely to be drafted as a young athletic project. Teams will have to hope that his strong work ethic and overall impressive character traits will help him improve his weaknesses to eventually hit even parts of his upside.
Projected draft range: 40-undrafted
Expected role: Athletic defender
Unplayable if: Lack of offense away from the rim makes him a black hole offensively, and overall a negative on that end. Additionally, any defensive negatives on a given night will make his impact significantly worse.
Exceeds expectations if: He thrives as an ultra-small 5, and NBA spacing + the perfect roster finds him makes it easy to hide his offensive holes.
Videos:
Shot chart:
