Thoughts on the Luka Doncic/Anthony Davis Blockbuster Trade
Arguably the most shocking trade in NBA history
By now you have heard the news about Luka Doncic going to the Lakers for Anthony Davis and Max Christie, along with a 2029 first round pick to Dallas, Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber, and Markieff Morris to LA, and the Jazz facilitating the trade by taking on Jalen Hood-Schifino along with two second round picks.
My raw reaction timeline was something like these thoughts:
Oh wow Shams got hacked, he must not use MFA
This trade didn’t even work in the trade machine, why are people believing clear misinifromation
Oh wow, this is real. At this point I was in a complete state of shock with no thoughts for about 30 minutes, just trying to see validity of the trade
Why Anthony Davis? This has to be just a moving piece in bigger moves, right?
I will dive into analysis, but the pure shock is something I have only felt once before in sports, which is when KD signed with the Warriors, but free agency is a different animal than a team willingly moving someone to an unlikely destination. Let’s break this trade down in full:
Trading Luka
This part remains the most confusing element of the trade. First we heard that this was about conditioning and defense, and that the Mavs clearly didn’t think Luka is capable of winning a title in Dallas with his mentality. Objectively, he is one of the laziest defenders in the league, often taking plays off and notoriously complaining to refs instead of getting back on defense, which left his teammates often in a 5-on-4 situation. He is currently out with a calf injury, and unconfirmed reports have said he has gained significant weight in this time (key word, unconfirmed). Maybe the injury is worse than perceived, but otherwise, I think I speak for most people that watch basketball in saying an out of shape Luka is still a top 10 player in the world. Unless the injury is worse than people realize and it is flirting with a larger injury, which seems unlikely, then this still seems like a head scratching move.
The defense element raises some more interesting questions, however. Everyone knows a title-winning team must have an elite defense (generally top 10 is the benchmark, and the teams in both the top ten of offense and defense are the title winners), and having just faced a Boston team with premier defenders at every position, there’s a chance defense is being re-evaluated in the league. My perception on defense the last two or so seasons has drastically changed, and if you watch carefully about how teams build, draft, and construct rotations, much of it is about not being played off the floor defensively. Eventually, there is an intersection of offensive talent vs defensive talent, and for every percent of offense a player gets worse, the defense has to get that much better to survive. This trade could send a message across the league that defense is more important than the narrative the league has right now of “nobody plays defense”, which mostly doesn’t have legs on it- players are just that good on offense. All of that to be said, there is a real amount of truth to the defensive concerns given how easily exploitable a single missed rotation can become even for the best defensive teams. Having five players who can fully click and be glued to the defensive scheme is a top priority in the playoffs, and Anthony Davis does help fulfill that vision. Look for more defense-first and two-way players that may not be elite offensive talents to start getting drafted higher and higher with this in mind. Especially knowing the top 5-10 players in the world are almost all two way players, and three of the top four were not even top ten picks (SGA, Jokic, Giannis, even if Jokic is not the defensive player Shai is).
The next thing we heard was that Luka did not demand a trade, and that the Mavs were facing “a tumultuous summer [with] him being eligible for the supermax and also a year away from him being able to opt out of any contract” per Brad Townsend of Dallas News.
This is the part that makes the drama the most interesting. Harrison has denied that Luka demanded a trade, and multiple national reporters said this developed in the shadows. But what many cannot comprehend here is that only the Lakers knew of this, or at least no other GM is owning up to knowing, and the trade has been brewing for weeks. If this has been a possibility for weeks and only one team was contacted, to me that screams a trade demand to the Lakers was made. At the least, not doing due diligence and asking for the offer to be beat seems a bit unusual. Everyone is denying that there was a trade demand or any dramatic conversation between Doncic and management, but there is also the possibility everyone is saving face and doing Doncic and his people a favor to leave gracefully. Unlikely, but something that continues to cross my mind in an effort to simply question everything. What is interesting though, is all of the Dallas-based sources are denying there was tension, but rather this was truly a ‘get ahead of it now’ type move with no notice given to Doncic.
The other element that makes this interesting is that the Mavs are now below the luxury tax by ~$600K compared to being over the tax by ~5M before. Again, everyone has denied ownership being involved, but when money comes into play like this, there is undeniably a bigger figure involved here. In general, the principle I follow is that if a trade’s root cause is saving money, it’s probably going to be a lopsided trade. This is a candidate to be just that, but time will tell how Luka fits and plays in LA, and how Davis meshes with the current roster.
The last thing this deal tells me is that the CBA has changed how teams approach top players, and how top players will approach their contracts with teams. More no trade clauses could be in play, and players can be more ruthlessly traded out of nowhere. This is already the second shocking star trade this season, after the KAT/Randle swap in the preseason, which also had money implications. Balancing money and talent will take a new perspective going forward in how teams can avoid the toxins of a supermax without losing talent, making players more easily traded out of nowhere. Another element is if a player wants to be in a good spot, they can add a no trade clause more willingly. Right now, only two explicitly stated no trade clauses exist in the league. That number could rise more in the coming years.
The Current Roster
This is where things start to get tricky. Questioning the roots of the trade is no longer relevant at this stage, but rather what is next is the most applicable question. Clearly the Mavs’ goal is to stay under the tax line, but a trio of bigs that the best shooter of the three is a sub-30% shooter cannot work. It is hard to maximize the offense playing any two of these three bigs together still, even with the light threat of Davis playing behind the three point line.
On top of that, does PJ Washington still fit with this new big-man oriented roster? Could he now be moved in a subsequent deal? The Mavs clearly are not done making a move, since this final roster has too many holes in it for the playoffs, but who is the next piece to be moved? Harrison has been adamant that a three headed monster of Davis/Lively/Gafford is here to stay, but that makes minimal sense as of right now. Additionally, a small domino the Mavs have to address, since contract status was a concern for this trade, is the upcoming free agency for Quentin Grimes. Could he be moved as a sweetener despite Dallas liking what he has brought to the table this year?
Another interesting point is that the Mavs got much older with this. Their core is now:
Anthony Davis, 31 turning 32 in March
Kyrie Irving, 32 turning 33 in March
Dereck Lively II, turning 21 in ten days
Klay Thompson, turnign 35 in six days
PJ Washington, 26 with a summer birthday
Daniel Gafford, 26 with a training camp birthday
The average age of just the core is now 29 come playoffs time. Before, with Luka subbed in for Davis, it was a full year younger. This could make the offseason even more pressured to win now, which often leads to major downfalls after the old core leaves. What confuses me here is that the Mavs were beautifully set up to compete both this season and next into Luka Doncic’s free agency, so why not even let the playoff run ride and see what can happen with Luka expected to be healthy by then? The answer lies somewhere in between valuing defense, the injury potentially being worse than known to the public, and a disconnect in building the team.
Thoughts on the Rest of the Deal
Some quick hitters here, but this move was not just about two players, it actually has some interesting elements.
The Mavs were able to move Kleber out while he recovers from his foot injury, something deemed unlikely. They also moved a beloved locker room member in Markieff Morris, but he added minimal on-court value.
The Lakers quickly gave up on 2023 first round pick Jalen Hood-Schifino, who turns 22 over the summer. He has shown almost no flashes of being able to contribute in the NBA, and is likely to leave Utah this summer with very few takers. JHS could be the first of the first round picks in 2023 to be out of the league, or at least the first to not be on a standard NBA contract.
The Mavs only got one pick in return, which speaks volumes to what they think of Davis’ ability to play today. This makes the gamble that much larger, since their trade assets only slightly grew from the day before, which has already been limited.
Max Christie has taken a good jump forward and is under contract until his player option in 2028. Christie has been an efficient shooter and has taken the responsibilities of guarding the opposing team’s best player well. The Mavs must really like him and his contract to have punted a pick but instead to get a young and blossoming 3&D wing.
Doncic and Dorian Finney-Smith are reunited again; that will be surreal to see them together, but in purple in gold.
In all, I still believe Dallas did not get enough back. Even if there are devastating injury concerns, one pick for a top five player at nearly 26 should have yielded more, given Davis’ injury concerns.
The Lakers successfully bridged the gap between the Lebron era and post-Lebron era. Most thought they would have to get lucky in the draft or sign a star in free agency, but rather it seems a top player fell into their lap.
The 2025 Draft
The last element of this, fulfilling the brand of MavsDraft, is examining how this changes the draft. In the apparent middle of these trade talks unfolding, I posted my first Mavs-oriented big board. This was with the expectation that the Mavs wouldn’t do something out of left field and trade their cornerstone, top five player, so this has become essentially obsolete. The approach now changes, given how the Mavs clearly value defense, and their lone rookie-scale building block is a center without creation ability. Rather than taking a wing or stretch big in the first round, now it seems an all-around upside gamble may be a possibility. There are still players from the big board that can be relevant picks, having both a high floor and high ceiling as more do-it-all players, such as Rasheer Fleming and Jase Richardson. Now, the pressure to find players that can carry the torch after the older core players are gone becomes stronger.
The consensus on this draft, which I agree with, is that the class is very strong at the top, it falls of at three or four for the duration of the lottery, but then the drop-offs after the lottery are minimal. This benefits a team like Dallas, making it easier to find hidden upside gems deeper in the draft. What we know though, is that if they do go with the long-term approach with short-term value, the player is likely going to be a two-way threat.
Look for a new board later this week that better reflects the approach Dallas looks to take in June.