Matas Buzelis Scouting Report
An interesting prospect in theory, but can he hit his upside that made him a coveted high school prospect?
Name: Matas Buzelis
Birth date: October 13, 2004
Height/Weight: 6’9/197
Wingspan/ standing reach: 6’10/8’9 ½
Hand size: 9 ¼
Position: SF
Pre-Draft team: G League Ignite
Tools: Explosiveness, shot blocking
Background: Bypassed college by joining the Ignite. Has been around the NBA landscape for a while, earning a mini showcase at the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. Was Kansas’ Gatorade Player of the Year at Sunrise Christian, and New Hampshire Gatorade Player of the Year the year before.
Season stats: 13 PPG 6.6 RPG 1.9 APG 0.9 SPG 1.8 BPG 2.2 TOPG on 45.5/26/69.6
Pros:
Jumper is difficult to block
Plus vertical athlete that can utilize athleticism on both ends of the floor
Finishes above the rim in traffic at times thanks to vertical pop
Good cutter that can finish above the rim
Good shot-blocker that can time shot contests well
Good rebounder
Defends drives well; could grow in that area as he develops his body
Gets long contests on the perimeter
Cons:
Doesn’t embrace physicality; has earned a label among some scouts as ‘soft’
Stiff defensively at times despite good hip flip; needs to get stronger in his base
Handle is okay at best. Has moves but is turnover prone while dribbling in traffic. Creates best off the dribble with post ups.
Jump shot form is off- release point is not the same off the dribble and on the catch
Doesn’t blow by defenders; lacks much top-end speed or separation ability
Doesn’t see the floor well in transition and quick offense; can miss obvious open teammates and get tunnel vision when on the run
Doesn’t jump stop; runs straight into shots
Loses the ball going up often; could be tied to frame concerns
Had a negative assist:turnover ratio
Swing Skills:
Low defensive upside, but how high is his floor truly? Sees the right plays, but body lags behind intelligence
Can he improve predictability as a ball-handler?
Jump shot is entirely theoretical; will it ever come around?
How does he overcome some athletic limitations
Has a decent handle, but can he make it great to help him overcome separation concerns?
Summary:
Matas Buzelis is an upside play out of the G League Ignite, boasting an ideal height for a combo forward, some defensive tools, and a hit-or-miss offensive package.
Buzelis’ jumper must translate in order for him to find success in the NBA. However, right now it’s almost entirely theoretical based on what the G League Ignite season showed. The way I see it is as follows: while the touch hasn’t disappeared (his low FT% this season was likely a fluke), the real-game shooting has deteriorated because of how he gets to his shots. For example, in high school he could simply shoot over defenders and didn’t struggle getting to his spots. However, in the G League he was more easily walled off on drives, forcing him to panic and go to his most reliable moves in turnaround jumpers, which are significantly more difficult against G League competition than high-level high school competition. Buzelis’ shot lacks a consistent release, struggling to get the same mechanics off the catch compared to off the dribble. This is an alarming trait to have for questionable shooters, and his release point is unconventional.
The question regarding Buzelis’ shot comes down to if the mechanics are being overhauled and this was an ‘in-progress’ season that became a negative outlier compared to his high school stats, or if this was simply a warning about his shot not translating up. With better length, defensive instincts, and more athleticism on the defensive end against his shot, this is not an unlikely scenario. However, the free throw percentage dip could be explained partly because the G League did an all-or-nothing free throw, which limited his chances to boost his percentage with a better sample size.
Despite being a good vertical athlete, Buzelis’ separation ability and burst are poor, which will limit his ability to successfully attack closeouts and take gambling defenders out of the play. He over-relies on his shoulder bump, which while a good move, can put him in a vulnerable position with the ball if the move doesn’t work. Additionally, his awareness and vision as a ball-handler at full-speed are poor. A common theme for him came as he would run in transition and be so focused on his own play that he wouldn’t see his teammates filling the lane, leading to forced shots and bad decisions in quick offense. He also panics when bullied around through physicality in the half-court as a ball-handler, giving him tunnel vision, while also making it more likely he forces his go-to turnaround jumper, even if it doesn’t fit the flow of the play. In transition, he struggles to truly see the floor and keep tabs of where his teammates both are and will be, which leads to forced shots and not capitalizing on advantageous fast breaks. The hope teams will have is that these consistent decision-making errors were from the Ignite telling him to be ultra aggressive, as opposed to him naturally struggling with reading the floor on the move.
Buzelis’ shot needs to translate because his separation ability is poor, and his handle doesn’t break down defenders well. On top of this, he struggles to attack closeouts well because of limited burst, which makes his shooting margin for error that much more slim. In a way, his shot-making ability will trickle down to the rest of his game: if he does not shoot, he will be unable to beat defenders in any capacity off the dribble, which then takes away his best scoring move (turnaround jumper), and will force him to become a passer, which is a weakness in his game at the moment. His inability to attack closeouts will also limit him, since he struggles to zoom past out of position defenders. Because of this, his margin for error as a shooter becomes extremely thin, and without his jumper falling he is unlikely to be an impactful offensive player on a night-to-night basis.
Defensively, Buzelis has great timing on contests, leading to a high block number. In addition to his timing, his vertical athleticism allows for him to be a good help-side defender or a transition shot-blocker. While he can defend drives well, how it scales up with a poor wingspan is a major question mark. Buzelis doesn’t always embrace physicality, which could limit his defensive consistency. As he adds strength, his mentality will need to adjust with his body, otherwise he will be a theoretical defender more than a practical one that can be versatile.
Buzelis’ overall awareness struggles could be a fatal flaw. If these are system errors, that bodes well for his upside and could make it easy for teams to develop his game into reaching his perceived upside from high school. How well Buzelis learns to embrace physicality, how his handle develops, if his decision-making is an unfixable issue or not, and how his shot translates, give Buzelis lots of risk with a good outcome given his size and overall skill combination. How his game develops in a more positive developmental spot and as he gets stronger will determine how close to his high ceiling he gets. Another question teams will be asking themselves is: what position does he play? He needs to shoot well to be a wing, but lacks the physical traits to be a big. Right now, the ceiling attainment chances seem low from what the Ignite showcased, which could lead to GM’s treading with caution on draft night.
Projected draft range: 3-10
Expected role: Wildcard forward with defensive flashes.
Unplayable if: Lack of awareness, hesitance to embrace physicality, inconsistent shooting, and poor separation ability each play off each other negatively to combine into an unplayable forward.
Exceeds expectations if: Shooting was a one-off in the G League, and his awareness improves with age. Additionally, if he gets stronger, he can become a positive defender.
Videos:
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