Isaiah Collier Scouting Report
How high is the true point guard's ceiling?
Name: Isaiah Collier
Birth date: October 8, 2004
Height/Weight: 6’2 ½/205
Wingspan/ standing reach: 6’4 ¾/8’1 ½
Hand size: 9
Position: Point guard
Pre-Draft team: USC
Tools: Playmaking
Background: Top recruit in high school in 2023. Made the PAC-12 All-Freshman team.
Stats: 16.3 PPG 3 RPG 4.3 APG 1.5 SPG 0.2 BPG 3.3 TOPG on 49/34/67
Pros:
Outstanding P&R ball-handler
Sees the floor well and can see through defenses; easily makes skip passes with accuracy
Good motor and hustles back on defense after mistakes/bad plays
Does a good job of changing speeds to throw off defenders
Excellent ball-handler with a tight handle
Has a smooth finger roll with nice touch
Cons:
Jump shooting needs consistency. Mechanics at the release need smoothening out, including guide hand sometimes falling short. Shoots like a big
Needs to continue getting into better shape (Gonzaga game)
Short arms with negative wingspan may limit defensive upside
Lacks great athleticism; doesn’t blow by defenders or finish above the rim
Poor length/mediocre frame
Lacks consistent defensive intensity
Swing Skills:
Jump shooting
Defensive upside
Summary:
Isaiah Collier may lack the high-end upside without great athleticism and an iffy jumper, but his playmaking and ability to use his body to his advantage is what wins him over with NBA teams.
Offensively, Collier can run the offense and see through defenses while making everyone around him better on offense. His jump shot needs significant work, and right now that is his glaring hole in his game. His base is good, but his shot is too compact, lacks fluidity, and most importantly it is not consistent in its upper mechanics. Because of this, the concerns regarding Collier’s jumper are real: 33.8% from 3 and 67% from the free throw line, both numbers that are far below the average freshman point guard’s numbers. Among below the rim 6’3 or smaller finishers (sub 10 dunks for the year) and poor shooters + poor free throw shooters, Collier is the only prospect that fits this mold in all of college basketball. That should be a flag for teams, as only 4 players have ever been drafted with this archetype, and none of them in that same year (they were later drafted down the road with improvements in their games).
What separates Collier from these guards is that he is the truest point guard of the bunch (he had a 31 assist percentage this year), and he is also among the strongest as a power guard. His bully-ball finishing ability, in how he uses power to get to his spots and changing speeds to then punish out of position defenders makes him a great finisher.
Defense will be a toss-up, depending where he lands. He still needs to learn how to play defense, but his limited length combined with a strong frame makes him a bit of a mixed bag. If put on the right roster, his defensive woes may be easily hidden. His defense will likely come down to his motor and how hot it runs on the defensive end.
Overall, Collier’s upside as an elite backup guard will be a point worth driving home with NBA teams in the back half of the lottery or middle of the first round. With an ability to set up his teammates in the right spots to make them better, Collier fits the bill of someone returning top 15 value. Look at Tyus Jones, who had started less than 20% of his games played before this last season in Washington: Jones has returned lottery level talent in an average, or even below average, draft class that could end up comparable to this year’s draft. The big question marks to overcome for Collier will be: jump shooting, countering a lack of great athleticism, and what his defensive outcome looks like.
Projected draft range: 13-26
Expected role: Floor general off the bench as a backup PG on a winning team
Unplayable if: Lack of shooting and defensive intensity are such negatives that he can’t negate it with point guard play.
Exceeds expectations if: Rim pressure translates at a high level, and the jumper improves over time to allow him to become a starter.
Videos:
Creating advantages at the rim
Shot chart:
