Dalton Knecht Scouting Report

An ideal late bloomer shooter on the wings

Rich Stayman

Apr 11, 2024

Name: Dalton Knecht

Birth date: April 19, 2001

Height/Weight: 6’6/197

Wingspan/ standing reach: N/A

Hand size: N/A

Position: Wing

Pre-Draft team: Tennessee

Tools: Shooting, feel for the game

Background: Had a late growth spurt, boomed in JUCO then transferred to Northern Colorado. After dominating the Big Sky, he spent one year at Tennessee, where he won SEC Player of the year and was named as a consensus All-American.

Season stats: 21.7 PPG 5 RPG 1.8 APG 0.7 SPG 0.6 BPG 1.7 TOPG on 46/40/77

Pros:

Good athlete that can finish above the rim in traffic
Has a formidable post/back-to-the-basket game
Comfortable with both hands
Reliable shooter with good size on the wings; has picture perfect form and can shoot over closeouts
Can come off screens with ease and hit movement 3s
Doesn’t make many mistakes and limits turnovers
Great feel for the game
Intelligent off-ball defender that is quick to recover and adapt to the play
Always tags a man for box-outs, which helps him as a rebounder

Cons:

Low defensive ceiling; can get blown by easily and isn’t great at making himself bigger against stalled ball-handlers/after they’ve picked up the dribble (Wisconsin game)
Ball security can be rough; likely has small hands since ball can be taken from him easily
Doesn’t separate on drives
Mediocre hip-turning/flexibility. Quick change of direction type players will burn him in the NBA
Needs to get stronger

Swing Skills:

His teammates miss him running in transition; his scoring upside has room because of conservative transition offense (A&M game)

Summary:

Dalton Knecht is a modern wing prospect that has his great trait in shooting, but offers value in other areas across the board offensively. With a strong feel for the game and valuable off-ball gravity by being able to succeed as all of an off-ball mover, standstill shooter, and shooter off the dribble as needed, it is rare to see Knecht in bad spots offensively.

Offensively, Knecht plays an ideal style for a modern off-ball wing by creating shooting gravity, attacking hard closeouts with controlled dribbles, wisely moving off-ball both around the perimeter and cutting towards the basket. He can almost always be trusted by coaches to make the right decision with the ball in his hands. With a quick and ideal release that doesn’t have many, if any, wasted motions, a slow reaction to raise a contest can be costly for a defense. On top of his shooting ability, Knecht can attack closeouts and drive coming off of screens on the perimeter. Knecht’s ability to both shoot moving right or left, combined with his threat to take the right or left drive comfortably make him difficult to defend coming off of screens.

Since he struggles to separate from his defender on drives, using Knecht as a primarily off-ball threat gives him more leeway as a driver, playing more to his strengths. By doing this, Knecht can more easily get to his spots since the defense will be chasing him around, likely giving him more room to get to the rim. Knecht is a good finisher at the rim, and the skill should translate up because he has to take difficult, often falling away, shots at the rim due to the crowdedness of the college paint and spacing.

Knecht often finds the holes in defenses, moving as soon as he sees his man sag off to trap the ball-handler, or simply moving across the floor until the defense is thoroughly confused. This instinct is what separates simple shooters from great shooters: knowing how to find the weakest spot of the defense, which makes every point guard’s life easier. In doing this, Knecht is not selfish as a scorer, but rather reads the defense quickly and properly which leads to high percentage shots off of broken defenses in an ideal world. As the only high major player in the country with a ~30% usage rate and under ~10 turnover percentage (depending on the source of Basketball Reference or Bart Torvik), Knecht’s feel for the game and proper decision-making with the ball in his hands is a standout trait.

One area offensively where Knecht can grow even more as an NBA prospect is by adding a floater/runner option, particularly out of attacking closeouts. It is rare to see Knecht take a true floater, and although Synergy Sports records many of his fading away drives as runners, these are not indeed true runners or floaters that attack the space between the last defender and the scorer. This can partially be attributed to spacing, making it even harder to get a floater off when Knecht struggles to separate, along with crowded paints to quickly get into a runner. Adding this tool, particularly off of cuts and attacking closeouts, will be big to help his 2 point scoring in the NBA.

Defensively, Knecht is intelligent, but is easily exploitable on-ball. He gets blown by too easily, he can be bullied out of the play, and doesn’t make offensive players intimidated to attack him. As a wing, he will have to adapt to switches off of his more favorable matchup into strong wings like Kawhi Leonard that can bulldoze him into their spots for an open jumper. Defense is a valuable trait for any wing to have, and Knecht’s defensive shortcomings on-ball are detrimental to his defensive evaluation. While he is quick to rotate and recover off-ball, helping keep the defense afloat (which holds its own value), the on-ball woes will haunt him come playoffs more than the regular season. Knecht’s lack of hip flexibility, need to add strength, and overall physical defensive shortcomings are why he projects to be a poor defender. Games like the early season matchup against Wisconsin show how players can bump him easily even after he wins the initial battle on defense, and how he struggles to close defensive possessions.

While his defensive tools are lacking and he will be 23 years old for his entire rookie season, Knecht has a great chance to impact winning basketball on a team that is priming to make a jump in their trajectory from a rising team to a top team. Ideally, Knecht is a rookie that will help bring veteran player value while being under rookie control with quality value, propelling him to become one of the best contracts in the NBA by the time he is finishing up his rookie contract.

Projected draft range: 10-20

Expected role: Ideal shooter off the bench, or starter in favorable matchups, that makes minimal mistakes and can attack closeouts.

Unplayable if: It will be hard for Knecht to be unplayable, but a low-minutes night is likely based on a combination of a bad shooting night while being targeted on defense. This is more likely to happen in the playoffs than the regular season.

Exceeds expectations if: He lands with the right coach that minimizes his defensive shortcomings, and his shooting boosts in the NBA with more size/playmaking combinations around him.