Alex Sarr Scouting Report
My number 1 prospect, but he comes with some growing pains
Name: Alex Sarr
Birth date: April 26, 2005
Height/Weight: 6’11 ¾/224
Wingspan/ standing reach: 7’4 ¼/9’2
Hand size: 10
Position: C/PF
Pre-Draft team: Perth (NBL)
Tools: Finishing, athleticism, defensive mobility
Background: Went to OTE for two years before going to the NBL. Brother, Olivier, has played for OKC. Had a brief stint with Real Madrid.
Season Stats: 9.6 PPG 4.5 RPG 1 APG 0.4 SPG 1.5 BPG 1 TOPG 1.4 FPG on 50/28/71 in 18 MPG
Pros:
Quick off his feet, making him a successful above the rim finisher
High-level athlete that can finish above the rim in traffic
Has a variety of driving moves out of the short roll
Potential to stretch the floor; good shooting touch from all levels of the floor
Can guard multiple positions thanks to smooth mobility; can move step-for-step with guards
Strong finishing instincts; he is always cutting to the rim/to the holes in the paint
Has shown good flashes of passing under the rim
Covers lots of ground as a help defender with long strides; patrols the paint well
Does well out of flashes against zones
Cons:
Jump shot is still a work in progress and a bit theoretical
Base on jumper is awkward; feet are pointed away from each other
Makes too many underhand passes instead of simple passes for accuracy
Right hand dominant
Needs to get stronger; gets pushed around in the paint on both ends too easily
Low rebound percentage and can lose box outs rather easily
Will have a difficult time defending post-ups early in his career; got bullied by smaller players on post-ups
Has bad hands
Swing Skills:
How good is his rebounding? Team context pushed him down the totem pole as a rebounder in Australia, but how good of a rebounder will he be right away in the NBA?
Just how high is his ceiling when strength flips to a positive for him?
Summary:
Right now, Alex Sarr is a bit theoretical. He has shooting potential, but is not yet a shooting threat. He can defend multiple positions with agility and athleticism, but is not yet consistently winning plays on the defensive end and lacks some awareness. He also can be pushed around on both ends of the floor, limiting some of his early career scoring upside near the rim. Because of all this, his margin for error becomes thin, meaning he must play entirely mistake-free basketball. One silver lining from this flaw is that he is already exposed to physical basketball in the NBL, and the NBA shouldn’t be a hard adjustment for him in that regard. Sarr found many ways to finish above defenders, rather than through, which will help him produce early in his career near the rim.
As a shooter, Sarr is hypothetical more than practical, with a quick ability to take the jump to get there as an inside-out big. His footwork is awkward and the extra movements in his jumper that have been present for years to scouts are minimized but not fully removed. With more reps and living in the gym, Sarr could unlock his potential as a stretch big that can also dominate the paint. How long it takes to get to that point is the more likely question than if it ever comes around.
Sarr’s need to add strength shapes many swing factors in his upside: rebounding ability, winning contests at the rim on defense, finishing through contact offensively, and setting good screens. As a rebounder, he can be moved out of the way and snaked around on box outs, and he doesn’t have great hands to consistently secure the ball. As a defender, strong wings can easily push through him, and some wings posted him up throughout his time in the NBL. However, he patrols the paint well and covers ground well, which makes him a good help-side defender and potentially a high upside rim protector as his body fills out.
Sarr’s size and length, athleticism, and scoring combination is a part of why he is the top prospect in this draft. He needs some polish, particularly around finding consistency in his shot, adding strength, and overall awareness, but has a high floor because of his physical abilities with a positive basketball IQ.
Fit with Atlanta:
The Hawks hold the number one pick, and Sarr would give Trae Young a big man like he has never had before. While he is not the most ready pick (likely Clingan), he does offer the most upside in the long-run, potentially existing past a Trae Young era if things get rocky. Young has never had an inside out big with defensive prowess, but rather multiple players around that objective (Collins’ scoring ability paired with Capela’s rim protection). This allows for a unique role next to Trae, and as he gets stronger and processes the game better he will pay off quickly with value right away. This also allows the Hawks to move off of Capela (or if they prefer to sell Okongwu), which helps create a clear path to a solution of the logjam at center in Atlanta.
Fit with Washington:
There’s no guarantee the Hawks take the consensus number one overall pick, and if the Wizards land Sarr at two, this is a big win for the beginning of their rebuild. Sarr has the clear highest upside in terms of filling a team’s blank slate and starting from scratch as a do-it-all big on both ends potentially. This is the exact upside pick that teams starting a rebuild in the lottery pray for to fall into their laps. This also makes it easy to fill in talent around Sarr and Coulibaly for next year’s loaded class, which has most of its early top talent coming on the wings with some exceptions.
Projected draft range: 1-3
Expected role: Do-it-all big with room to grow physically.
Unplayable if: Jump shot never becomes consistent and lack of strength doesn’t improve, limiting his upside significantly. In this worst case scenario, he floats around the league becoming a reclamation project rather than a building block.
Exceeds Expectations if: Sarr fills out his frame fully, and he continues learning the game with age while refining shot mechanics. In this scenario, he becomes a near perennial all-star caliber big.
Videos:
Shot chart:
