AJ Johnson Scouting Report
A boom or bust prospect that will cause division among scouts
Name: AJ Johnson
Birth date: December 1, 2004
Height/Weight: 6’4/167
Wingspan/ standing reach: 6’8 ½/8’6
Hand size: 8 ½
Position: SG
Pre-Draft team: Illawarra Hawks
Background: Decommitted from Texas to go to the NBL Rising Stars program. Struggled to fit into the NBL and carve out a niche.
Season stats: 2.9 PPG 1.2 RPG 0.8 APG 0.2 SPG 0.1 BPG 0.7 TOPG 0.9 FPG in 8.3 MPG on splits of 35.5/28/54
Tools: Athleticism, defensive upside
Pros:
Moves well and has a decent handle with both hands
Great athlete with explosion, and can finish above the rim in traffic
Puts in good effort defensively
Good cutter
Can make occasional advanced reads; has upside creating off of screens
Cons:
Needs to add strength and add weight; gets bullied on both ends too easily
Can pick up his dribble prematurely
Didn’t finish well at the rim; lost touch near the rim when met with contact
Doesn’t have much of a game away from the rim
Can get tunnel vision near the rim
Swing Skills:
Tweener; not a point guard but not big enough for the wings
Needs to simplify his game; goes for flashy plays instead of the simple play, primarily as a passer
How much does context change his game?
Summary:
AJ Johnson has athletic tools with explosive athleticism, along with promise as a ball-handler. However, beyond tools in getting to the rim and finishing at the rim, the game becomes increasingly more difficult for him as he gets away from the rim. His decision-making is erratic, he can rush into his spots, and his jump shot needs reworking.
On top of this, he must get stronger and fill out his frame. Currently at 167 pounds, he must hover around the 200 pound mark to best maximize his strong defensive tools and ability to make an impact on that end. Currently Johnson plays like a Tasmanian Devil, always trying to create havoc. He will need to be smarter about how he does this, as it can get him in trouble at times, but for the most part his head is in the right place. He uses his athleticism to stay in front of drivers, but can be prone to fouls and poor screen navigation. He must minimize his gambling and become more disciplined to stick in the NBA.
Johnson must also improve his overall touch around the rim, because he currently struggles to finish at the rim. While he had 7 dunks, he went 13-34 on layups in the NBL. His touch can be a bit out of control, often missing shots off the backboard and missing the rim entirely. On top of that, he double clutches often, and his need to add strength becomes apparent as he loses control of his shot through contact.
Overall, Johnson is a gamble given his skinny frame, limited shooting ability, and inability to find functional ways to impact games with his athleticism. He is going to take too long to develop, and in an impatient NBA, teams will quickly move on if his shot and body don’t develop quickly enough to have an impact in his first 4 years. Earning a second contract will be difficult unless he makes major strides in his first two years from who he is now as a player.
Projected draft range: 25-50
Expected role: Athletic downhill player that can put pressure on the rim, and eventually defend.
Unplayable if: Shot never develops, and size + lack of point guard skills limits him.
Exceeds expectations if: Shot grows and he puts on formidable muscle (30+ pounds) to maximize his defensive intensity.
Videos:
Shot chart:
